Among the sports betting public there\’s a lot of conflicting opinions about betting NFL preseason games. That\’s not really surprising, since there doesn\’t seem to be much middle ground on the subject. Overly cautious handicappers would argue that preseason football is a poor wagering opportunity. Some of the more obnoxious tout services would have you believe that short of a fixed game there is no greater \”lock\” that preseason football. Like most things that produce such polarized opinions, the truth is probably somewhere in the middle of the two extremes. Preseason NFL football is a unique proposition for the sports gambler, but when approached with caution, discipline and knowledge it can yield some profit.
The most compelling argument against preseason wagering is simply that the games don\’t count. While there are often spots during the regular season where teams may seem more or less motivated, in theory they all want to win. That\’s not something that can be taken as a \’given\’ during the preseason, however, as the individual agendas of NFL coaching staffs can very widely. Some might want to win games to establish a winning attitude, others might put a greater focus on working in a new offensive or defensive scheme. Others may prioritize evaluating talent at key positions, while others may simply want to make it through to the regular season without any significant injuries. With all of the uncertainty swirling around preseason football, handicapping wins and losses against the pointspread can be exceedingly difficult.
But like the old saying goes \”every dark cloud has a silver lining\”. And the divergent agendas at play in preseason football can be seen as precisely why it is a good wagering opportunity. For example, say the Superbowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers are set to play an \’also ran\’ team like the Houston Texans. By regular season standards, the Steelers would almost certainly be favored. In the preseason, however, they\’ll often have a different agenda for the individual game. A \”better\” team has more concern about protecting key players. and usually has fewer personnel decisions to deal with. They don\’t need to worry about implementing coaching changes, or creating \’team chemistry\’. As a result, \’better\’ teams frequently approach preseason games as a mere annoyance.
On the other hand, consider the \’lesser\’ team in a preseason matchup. They often have a number of key starting positions they need to fill, along with backup positions up for grabs. They may have new coaching staffs that players want to impress, new offensive or defensive schemes to implement. Most significantly, \’lesser\’ teams often view the preseason as an opportunity to build team chemistry or create a winning attitude. A team trying to rebuild can benefit from winning *any* games, regardless of whether or not they count in the standings. For a league doormat, a win over an elite level opponent can serve as a rare highlight of a losing season.
While some teams could care less about the result of preseason games, few want to enter the regular season having lost them all. In light of this fact, a successful preseason situation that has stood the test of time is to bet on teams that lost their first two exhibition games outright. This situation has produced a winning percentage right around 60%.
The philosophy of a NFL head coach is arguably the single most important factor contributing to preseason success. Some coaches always want to win, even if the games don\’t count in the standings. Other coaches place a much greater importance on evaluating personnel and giving backups playing time they won\’t have the opportunity to get during the regular season. The coaches that have a strong desire to win in the preseason often result in their team\’s pointspreads being inflated somewhat, but a motivated team is always worth consideration for a wager.
One of the best tools that a handicapper has at his disposal during the preseason is the Internet. Actually, it\’s a great tool year round but during the preseason it is invaluable. The best source of information on coaching philosophies, game plans, injuries, lineup changes, etc, are the local sports pages of NFL teams. Basically, the situation during preseason is that there is a lot of interest in the team and a lot of anxious beat writers looking to write stories. The problem is that there is little in the way of real news, and for that reason you\’ll find the sort of minutiae on teams and players from which you can often extract relevant handicapping information. Even if there aren\’t any nuggets of handicapping gold, you can at least get a feel for the coach\’s goals for the game and the amount of playing time that key players will see. Sometimes coaches will come right out and say who will play at what juncture of the game, and will occasionally go on record that personnel decisions like evaluating all of the guys they\’re considering for the backup defensive secondary jobs are more important than winning. Clearly, operating with this knowledge is a distinct advantage and operating without it can be fatal. There\’s nothing more frustrating than betting on a team only to have them look like they could care less whether or not they win the game. During the preseason, however, it can frequently be prevented with some simple research and analysis.
In closing, the best advice is to not be afraid of wagering on preseason football, but to not get too excited about it either. It\’s a good chance to grind out a small profit, but definitely not the moneymaking opportunity of a lifetime. There will be plenty of other\”and better\”football wagering opportunities down the road. Discipline and self-control is always in your best interest when betting on sports, and that certainly is the case in the preseason NFL.
Ross Everett is a widely published freelance writer who covers travel, poker and sports handicapping. He is a staff handicapper for Anatta Sports where he is responsible for providing daily free sports picks. In his spare time he enjoys fine dining, flower arranging and scuba diving. He lives in Southern Nevada with four dogs and a pet coyote.